Red pepper prices declined this week due to heavy arrivals of new crop 🚛 and weak exporter demand caused by moisture content 💧. However, a major price crash is unlikely as production is significantly lower this season.

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📉 Current Prices (Teja Quality)

📍 Guntur: ₹18,200 per quintal

📍 Khammam: ₹18,400 per quintal

🗓️ End of January levels:

Guntur ₹20,500

Khammam ₹21,100

⬇️ Weekly fall: ₹400–₹500 per quintal

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🌱 Sowing Area Down Sharply 📉

Continuous low prices over the past two years have reduced cultivation:

📍 Andhra Pradesh

Current: 2.59 lakh acres

Last year: 3.63 lakh acres

2023: 5.71 lakh acres

📍 Telangana

Current: 1.38 lakh acres

Last year: 2.22 lakh acres

2023: 3.41 lakh acres

📉 Madhya Pradesh: ↓ 40–50%

📉 Karnataka: ↓ 30–40%

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📦 Production Lower Across States ⚠️

Andhra Pradesh: ~12.5 million bags (vs 15m last year, 20m in 2023)

Telangana: 45–50 lakh bags (vs 60–65 lakh last year)

Madhya Pradesh: 1.8–2 million bags (vs ~3m last year)

➡️ Lower acreage + weather impact 🌦️ = tighter overall supply.

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🚛 Current Arrivals

Guntur: 75–80 thousand bags

Khammam: 20–25 thousand bags

Warangal: 14–15 thousand bags

📌 Arrival pressure may continue in February, possibly causing ₹10–15/kg correction.

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🌍 Export Support 📈

As per the Spices Board:

Apr–Nov 2025 exports: 4,81,446 tonnes

Revenue: ₹6,634 crore

Volume growth: +27% YoY

🌎 Strong global demand continues to support the market.

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🔮 Market Outlook

⏳ Short term: Prices may remain soft due to arrivals.

📈 Medium term: Limited downside as production is lower.

🎯 Potential: Prices can move towards ₹220–₹225/kg once arrivals slow.

 

Overall Trend: Temporary pressure ⚖️, structurally firm market 💪.